Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research
I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and multiple compression.
Inflation (regular CPI) has reached double digits in the final years of each of the last secular bears. It was inflation that made the 1910s and 1970s markets into bears, since the nominal Dow was trending sideways.
Previous secular bear markets haven’t ended until PEs are compressed to near 10. Right now the S&P 500 trailing PE is near 15, with the Shiller PE over 23.
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