Don’t worry about the Fed printing…yet.
Here are a couple of charts that illustrate the significance of what the Fed has undertaken lately. First, look at the change in its balance sheet this year from about $870 billion, almost all in...
View ArticleSummer school
There are still a lot of people out there who didn’t absorb last year’s course on the credit cycle, particularly the chapter on inflation and deflation. To remedy this gap in your elementary economic...
View ArticleThe “other side” of the deflation trade
Graphite here. I remain an ardent deflationist and continue to see strong risks of a continued collapse in asset values in world real estate and equity markets. That said, one key practice in...
View ArticleDollar on the brain
This is from Google Trends, which tracks the popularity of search terms: - - The question is, did something change in 2008, or was that just a blip? It astounds me how many stock market bears (and gold...
View ArticleRon Paul’s amazing predictions from a 2002 speech
About the only thing he got wrong was his prediction that the financial collapse would be inflationary, but of course he called gold correctly (it was about $300 at the time).
View ArticleChart: Secular Bear Markets Since 1900
Secular Bear Markets (red) since 1900. Source: Crestmont Research I like this chart, but I would change one thing: the bear that started in 1929 could extend clear through to 1948 due to inflation and...
View ArticleHedge funds: Just say no
Hedge funds are almost never a good investment. As a class, they underperform and overcharge. Only 20% of funds beat their benchmarks in a given year, and of those, fewer than half outperform in two of...
View ArticleBristlecone Pine trading
Hedge funds, mutual funds and active mangers underperform and overcharge, while a simple buy-and-hold strategy regularly sustains sharp losses and lengthy secular bear markets. So what’s an investor...
View ArticleBarrons Big Money Poll shows complacency & love for equities
It amazes me that the most successful managers could be so bullish at a time like this (way overvalued, way overbought, rising Treasury yields, stalled earnings growth), but of course stocks are most...
View ArticleWhat goes up must come down (coffee futures boom-to-bust).
A 9-month mania has become a relentless 2-year bear market, and prices are back where they started: From Futures.Tradingcharts.com From Indexmundi.com, here’s a longer-term view. As is typical of...
View ArticleTop developing
An overbought market that has kept the vast majority of investors and traders in the bull camp for several weeks is to be viewed with suspicion. When prices also begin to lose their upward momentum,...
View ArticleRSI declining – final warning sign
This is a very expensive and overbought market which few participants believe can decline meaningfully. That alone is dangerous, but now we see signs of technical exhaustion, such as the downtrend in...
View ArticleDaylight saving is pointless
Daylight Saving Time doesn’t save energy. It just messes up the seasonal progression of diurnal rhythms, effectively giving us jetlag. The sun was rising a few minutes earlier each week, and now...
View ArticleOne more datapoint on the equity bubble
The latest Flow of Funds Report (link to pdf) shows that equities comprise a greater share of US household assets than at any point besides the height of the internet bubble. Of course, elevated prices...
View ArticleOn Flash Boys, why HFT is parasitic, and why it’s over.
It’s my baseline assumption when looking at markets, financial or otherwise, that when something involves no fraud or physical coercion it’s beneficial or innocuous. When you find something damaging...
View ArticleDon’t worry about the Fed printing…yet.
Here are a couple of charts that illustrate the significance of what the Fed has undertaken lately. First, look at the change in its balance sheet this year from about $870 billion, almost all in...
View ArticleSummer school
There are still a lot of people out there who didn’t absorb last year’s course on the credit cycle, particularly the chapter on inflation and deflation. To remedy this gap in your elementary economic...
View ArticleThe “other side” of the deflation trade
Graphite here. I remain an ardent deflationist and continue to see strong risks of a continued collapse in asset values in world real estate and equity markets. That said, one key practice in...
View Article
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